Re: [802SEC] 2020 Nov Plenary - Straw Poll request for Closing sessions.
James-
Of course, you get to do what you want to do (subject to negotiations with your family and relevant employer).
However,
> On Nov 14, 2020, at 8:25 PMPST, James P. K. Gilb <000008e8b69871c2-dmarc-request@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> wrote:
>
> Andrew
>
> I have to take exception with one or your points:
> * Sitting on a plane or in an airport for X hours can’t be safe in the middle of a pandemic!
I am not so worried about my time in an airline seat.
From what I can gather, when that situation has settled down to steady state, it is pretty low risk.
Getting to, from and through at least two airports and the related boarding and disembarking processes is another matter.
>
> Setting aside the obvious point that nothing is "safe", the question really should be:
>
> Is it noticeably more of a risk to sit on a plane or in an airport now than in the past, say last year?
>
> For 2-3 of our meetings we travel during the annual global pandemic known as the flu season.
>
> For 99.9+% of the people in the world, the current health risk from contracting COVID-19 is substantially similar to contracting the flu.
What you say may well be true, i.e. the risk of acquiring the infection.
However, the risk of coping with the infection is considerably greater than coping with the flu.
Admittedly, the death rate is improving for those infected but it still is a lot worse than the flu.
Plus I have been vaccinated against the flu which provides some level of immunity as well as reducing severity when it doesn't provide immunity.
I do have to insert here that I did acquire a crud coming back from Bangkok that I did not shake off until Spring.
>
> Each person should make the rational analysis of their health risk and act accordingly.
> For me, like 99.9+% of the people in the world, the rational analysis says that the risk is not noticeably elevated.
It may be true for you. You certainly get to make that decision.
I have not seen or heard from any health expert that everyone (minus 0.1% of the population) is in your risk pool.
I don't believe I am.
Geoff
>
> I am worried that statements like you made might cause people to irrationally (i.e., based on emotion, not facts) decide not to fly, adversely affecting the industry and the millions of people around the world who depend on it for their livelihood.
>
> I volunteered to fly for work twice in May of this year because I rationally evaluated the risk and determined that my health and that of my family was not at increased risk. I just bought round trip tickets for my daughter to fly back from college for Thanksgiving. I have volunteered to fly for another test for work at the end of this year. This is not theoretical for me.
>
> An individual might rationally conclude that it is safer for them to fly now, due to the increased attention on cleaning, physical separation, etc. My suspicion is that any change in risk (for the vast majority of people) is less than the annual variation of risk due to the flu.
>
> James Gilb
>
> PS: I am not going to bother with the standard disclaimers as I expect that this list is read by thinking people.
>
> On 11/11/20 9:28 PM, Andrew Myles (amyles) wrote:
>> G’day George,
>> I believe that the answers questions to the 802.11 WG and the 802.1 WG represent a great example of crowd sourcing. Now we just need to work out what the results mean …
>> IMHO, the results represent the perspective of those that expressed an opinion based on the information available at the time, weighted by personal bias. Factors people probably took into account include:
>> * Safety of the destination
>> * Noting the US, Spain and Panama (802.11 WG planned meeting destinations) are all in the top 20 countries for deaths per population …
>> * … and are all are currently experiencing serious resurgences
>> * Safety of travel to the destination
>> * Sitting on a plane or in an airport for X hours can’t be safe in the middle of a pandemic!
>> * Practicality of travel to the destination
>> * In my case, I am not legally allowed to leave Australia …
>> * … and even if I was allowed to do so, I would be required to quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks on return if I travelled to US, Spain or Panama (all classed as dangerous destinations)
>> * Many companies have banned travel to end of 1Q21 or 1Q22 already
>> * Safety of a large meeting
>> * This can be managed to some degree, noting the excellent plans of the venue in Denver …
>> * … but many are nervous
>> * Availability of a vaccine
>> * This is looking more positive …
>> * … but vaccines are unlikely to be widely available/distributed globally until at least the middle of next year
>> * Fairness of holding a meeting to which a significant proportion of stakeholders can’t attend
>> * The IEEE-SA mantra of openness is contrary to the idea of holding meetings to which many can’t reasonably attend
>> * Availability of alternatives
>> * Teleconferences have worked reasonably well …
>> * … although a recognition the world is not all in ET would be nice
>> * Cost to attend
>> * Travel budgets in many companies are gone for the moment!
>> * …
>> I suspect that most people did not take into account the cost to the IEEE 802 of cancelling meeting on the basis there is not a good understanding of those costs by many, and most are more concerned about safety and personal practical considerations anyway. However, if they did take the IEEE 802 costs into account then it would most likely cause their estimate to be earlier than if they just took other factors into account. For the purposes of interpreting the results of the polls, I suggest we assume they are not affected by the cost to IEEE 802 of cancelling meetings.
>> The results from 802.1 WG and 802.11 therefore are a reasonable crowd sourced evaluations of the earliest people believe a meeting should be held, ignoring the cost to the IEEE 802 of cancelling meetings. Another interpretation is that it is the earliest they believe it is sensible for a reasonable person to organise a meeting in the current environment, knowing what we know today!
>> The results of the two polls in 802.1 WG and the one poll in the 802.11 WG are remarkably similar. They show:
>> * About 50% believe a meeting is reasonable in July 2021 or later
>> * Just less than 75% believe a meeting is reasonable in Sept 2021 or later
>> * More than 75% believe a meeting is reasonable in Nov 2021 or later
>> They also show that 802.11 WG folk are more gung ho that 802.1 WG folk! 😊
>> [cid:image003.png@01D6B906.AA2E1F20]
>> So based on what we know today, we should probably not even think about holding a meeting until about Nov 2021 (I am assuming we need some form of consensus to hold a meeting). However, we also do not need to make a decision today. We only need to make a decision at points in time where IEEE 802 is exposed to significant additional costs.
>> This suggests we should continue asking the WG participants questions similar to those asked this week. The answers will reflect the knowledge and situation at the time and will provide the EC the best information to make difficult decisions in the best interests of all IEEE 802 member/participants. I am sure the EC will execute their task with care and professionalism … with lots of help from the “peanut gallery” 😉
>> Andrew
>> From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List ***** <STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> On Behalf Of George Zimmerman
>> Sent: Thursday, 12 November 2020 3:03 AM
>> To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
>> Subject: Re: [802SEC] 2020 Nov Plenary - Straw Poll request for Closing sessions.
>> Andrew –
>> If the question were somewhat different, I would concur with you. However, the question is, perhaps, phrased as an ‘expectation’ asking the respondent to predict the future. Further, they are asked to predict not only for themselves, but for others in 802.
>> If I were asked that question, while I have no explicit restrictions and would follow a set of protocols for safe travel, I would probably answer November 2021 – because of others. However, for myself, I would evaluate the situation at each meeting opportunity, as information becomes more available. We are in a time where information available is highly variable with regards to vaccines, outbreaks, and personal risk, so it is not unreasonable that others, including companies, will continually re-evaluate.
>> As such, for 802, I would consider the cost of planning and pushing off meetings at a known decision date, likely just prior to opening registration or other time when the financial or logistic risk goes up significantly. I believe Jon is considering that, and I know I do as treasurer.
>> The questions which have been asked, have been asked. This is useful, but (at least for me), I don’t believe actionable information at this time. It might be useful to be a little more precise in the future as to what we want to know.
>> What I believe we really want to know is something like, “Based upon your affiliation’s and other restrictions, as well as your personal comfort level, when is the earliest you expect to be able to attend an 802.x face-to-face meeting”
>> -george
>> From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List ***** <STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG<mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG>> On Behalf Of Andrew Myles (amyles)
>> Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2020 5:24 PM
>> To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG<mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG>
>> Subject: Re: [802SEC] 2020 Nov Plenary - Straw Poll request for Closing sessions.
>> G’day all
>> If one considers 75% to be a reasonable measure of consensus then both the 802.1 WG and 802.11 WG polls suggest we should not plan another F2F until Nov 2021.
>> Andrew
>> From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List ***** <STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG<mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG>> On Behalf Of Jon Rosdahl
>> Sent: Wednesday, 11 November 2020 8:25 AM
>> To:
>> Subject: Re: [802SEC] 2020 Nov Plenary - Straw Poll request for Closing sessions.
>> Thanks Glenn,
>> We need to capture the number of companies with the travel ban, Work from Home (WFH) only policies.
>> As we get through this hard period of time, we need to be careful and mindful of everyone's concerns and safety.
>> I will compile your results to a consolidated report for Friday.
>> I hope the other WGs will be able to conduct similar (if not the same polls).
>> Regards,
>> Jon
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Jon Rosdahl Engineer, Senior Staff
>> IEEE 802 Executive Secretary Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
>> office: 801-492-4023 10871 North 5750 West
>> cell: 801-376-6435 Highland, UT 84003
>> A Job is only necessary to eat!
>> A Family is necessary to be happy!!
>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 2:20 PM Glenn Parsons <glenn.parsons@ericsson.com<mailto:glenn.parsons@ericsson.com>> wrote:
>> Jon,
>> In 802.1 at our closing plenary today we asked your question at the end of the plenary. As we were already in overtime there were only 52 responses. We had about 90 at our peak.
>> When do you expect the next in person 802.1 Session will be?
>> A.- March 2021 3 6%
>> B.- May 2021 7 13%
>> C.- July 2021 12 23%
>> D.- Sept 2021 11 21%
>> E.- November 2021 9 17%
>> F.- after 2021 7 13%
>> No Answer 3 6%
>> As well, we also asked a modified version (as some members were not clear):
>> When do you expect to next attend in person an 802.1 Session?
>> A.- March 2021 2 4%
>> B.- May 2021 8 15%
>> C.- July 2021 14 27%
>> D.- Sept 2021 9 17%
>> E.- November 2021 9 17%
>> F.- 2022 or later 7 13%
>> No Answer 3 6%
>> As an aside, in addition to personal preference to not travel until there is a vaccine, several mentioned that their employers already had travel restrictions in place until the end of either Q1 or Q2 2021.
>> Cheers,
>> Glenn.
>> From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List ***** <STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG<mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG>> On Behalf Of Jon Rosdahl
>> Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2020 10:47 AM
>> To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG<mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG>
>> Subject: [802SEC] 2020 Nov Plenary - Straw Poll request for Closing sessions.
>> Greetings,
>> During the 802.11 Closing Plenary, we held a straw poll and I would ask if you have time in your closing plenaries to ask the question " When do you expect the next in person 802.11 Session will be? " with the 6 options as noted below. Please send me the results:
>> The 802.11 results are noted below:
>> When do you expect the next in person 802.11 Session will be?
>> A.– March 2021 17/217 ( 8%)
>> B.- May 2021 14/217 ( 6%)
>> C. - July 2021 57/217 ( 26%)
>> D.- Sept 2021 29/217 ( 13%)
>> E.- November 2021 16/217 ( 7%)
>> F.- after 2021 25/217 ( 12%)
>> No Answer 59/217 ( 27%)
>> Thanks,
>> Jon
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Jon Rosdahl Engineer, Senior Staff
>> IEEE 802 Executive Secretary Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
>> office: 801-492-4023 10871 North 5750 West
>> cell: 801-376-6435 Highland, UT 84003
>> A Job is only necessary to eat!
>> A Family is necessary to be happy!!
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