Re: [802SEC] Why Buzz
Bob -
Neither, it would appear, do you do statistical analysis. Otherwise,
you would be well aware that a general principle derived from an
isolated event is highly likely to be erroneous.
Regards,
Tony
At 21:59 05/12/2007, Bob O'Hara (boohara) wrote:
>Tony,
>
>Thanks, but I don't smoke.
>
>Your data actually make just the opposite point. If the Beijing meeting
>falls on your increasing attendance trend line, the meeting in Monterey
>eight months later falls dramatically below that trend, by roughly 30
>participants. This supports the point that I made that California
>should not be one of your interim locations, since folks don't attend
>there. In fact, the participation in Geneva and Stockholm both drew
>much better participation. Perhaps all your interims should be in
>Europe.
>
>
> -Bob
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List *****
>[mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG] On Behalf Of Tony Jeffree
>Sent: Wednesday, December 05, 2007 11:20 AM
>To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
>Subject: Re: [802SEC] Why Buzz
>
>Bob -
>
>Actually, that interpretation is pretty wide of the mark if you look
>at the trends, and clearly shows the danger of comparing figures from
>individual meetings ~2-3 years apart when the overall attendance
>level is doubling over the same period. But you certainly proved my
>point that:
>
>"OK...now I'm sure that there will be a major outbreak of statistical
>analysis in response to this, and I'm sure that, as with all
>statistics, they can be made to prove anything you like."
>
>The two Sacramento interims, and also the Beijing interim, had
>attendance levels that were absolutely in line with the way the
>corresponding plenary attendances had been/were going; the two graphs
>(plenary and interim attendance) run pretty much parallel from Jan/05
>through to July '06. It is after that point that the interim
>attendance shows a major decline relative to the plenary attendance.
>If Geneva and Stockholm had had attendance figures in line with what
>the Jan/05 through July/06 trend predicted, then the attendance
>numbers at those two meetings would have been around 20 higher than
>they actually were.
>
>So sorry Bob; no cigar.
>
>Regards,
>Tony
>
>At 18:01 05/12/2007, Bob O'Hara (boohara) wrote:
> >Tony,
> >
> >I think there are a few other bits of interesting information in your
> >attendance data.
> >
> >In the last two years, since January 2006, your meetings in Beijing,
> >Geneva, and Stockholm had greater attendance than your meetings in
> >Monterey and Sacramento. In fact, attendance at your Beijing meeting
> >exceeded all but one of your meetings in the previous year and a half
> >(and that one meeting was a plenary). Perhaps you should stop holding
> >meetings in California. The trend certainly indicates that
> >participation suffers when you meet there.
> >
> >It appears from this data that holding meetings outside North America
> >does not disenfranchise participants, but quite the opposite. Three of
> >your four meetings outside North America in the last two years (and
>they
> >are all interim meetings, which generally have lower attendance than
> >plenaries) exceed the attendance for your other interim meetings in the
> >same period.
> >
> >So, I would find it difficult to argue anything but the fact that the
> >2/3 of the poll respondents in Atlanta were voting for anything but
> >their own self interest, when rejecting the Rome location. Those that
> >might have participated in the poll on the other side were not able to
> >vote, since they were not in Atlanta, having been already
> >disenfranchised.
> >
> > -Bob
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List *****
> >[mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG] On Behalf Of Tony Jeffree
> >Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 3:54 PM
> >To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
> >Subject: Re: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> >
> >Mat -
> >
> >Clearly you can't poll people that are not there, so it makes it more
> >difficult (but maybe not impossible - see below) to figure out how
> >many people are (or maybe are not!) being disenfranchised by the
> >current NA-centric plenaries.
> >
> >Equally clearly, you CAN figure out from polling the people that ARE
> >there, and from other available data, certain truths.
> >
> > From the poll data, for example, we can determine what proportion of
> >those that showed up in Atlanta would potentially be disenfranchised,
> >depending on how high we set the meeting costs.
> >
> > From the attendance data at our interim meetings, we can actually
> >get a fair idea of what effect NA vs nNA has; most (all?) of the WGs
> >meet nNA for some of their interims these days; why not go look at
> >the numbers and see what effect there appears to be. 802.1's meeting
> >attendance data looks like this over the past 3 years (this is counts
> >of people that had >75% qualifying attendance - total signins would
> >be greater):
> >
> >Jan 05: 41 (Sacramento)
> >Mar 05: 64 (Atlanta)
> >May 05: 43 (Berlin, Germany)
> >Jul 05: 63 (San Francisco)
> >Sep 05: 64 (Orange County)
> >Nov 05: 74 (Vancouver)
> >Jan 06: 74 (Sacramento)
> >Mar 06: 92 (Denver)
> >May 06: 87 (Beijing, China)
> >Jul 06: 105 (San Diego)
> >Sep 06: 56 (York, England)
> >Nov 06: 95 (Dallas)
> >Jan 07: 55 (Monterey, CA)
> >Mar 07: 108 (Orlando)
> >May 07: 81 (Geneva, Switzerland)
> >Jul 07 112 (San Francisco)
> >Sep 07: 75 (Stockholm, Sweden)
> >Nov 07: 117 (Atlanta)
> >
> >Now, its a small sample, and all of that, but there are some things
> >that you can observe about these data points. Amongst them are:
> >
> >Firstly, there is a clear overall trend - numbers of attendees are
> >increasing. If you look at a 2nd order polynomial trend line on a
> >spreadsheet, plenary numbers have increased almost linearly from ~60
> >to ~120 over the 3 years.
> >
> >Secondly, the attendance at plenaries is far more consistent than
> >attendance at interims. The order polynomial trend line for interim
> >attendance shows that while attendance in the first year and a half
> >closely matched Plenary attendance, over the second year and a half
> >the trend has levelled out and if anything, extrapolating onwards,
> >is predicting a downturn in our January interim attendance. The point
> >at which the levelling off/downturn occurs matches pretty closely
> >with the point at which we moved from the occasional (no more than
> >one per year) nNA Interim to 2 years where we had 2 nNA Interims in
>each
> >year.
> >
> >So, my personal "feel" for the nNA experiment as it applies to real
> >numbers gleaned from real attendees at real meetings is that we get a
> >falloff of serious attendees (those that attend enough to get voting
> >attendance credit) when we hold meetings in nNA locations. The one
> >exception to this was Beijing, where the numbers were significantly
> >boosted by attendees from the host company.
> >
> >OK...now I'm sure that there will be a major outbreak of statistical
> >analysis in response to this, and I'm sure that, as with all
> >statistics, they can be made to prove anything you like. But my point
> >is twofold:
> >
> >Firstly, using the real meeting attendance data that I have in front
> >of me, my conclusion is that 802.1's attendance goes down when we
> >meet nNA. If you wanted that quantified, the trend lines indicate
> >that the hit is of the order of 20 people.
> >
> >Secondly, I'm getting heartily bored with arguments of the form "We
> >don't have the data, so we can't do the analysis" being put forward
> >to bolster potentially spurious conclusions. We have a lot of data to
> >hand - based on real attendances at real meetings. If we took the
> >trouble to examine it instead of throwing up our hands in despair, it
> >might actually tell us something useful.
> >
> >Regards,
> >Tony
> >
> >
> >At 18:11 04/12/2007, Sherman, Matthew J. (US SSA) wrote:
> > >Buzz,
> > >
> > >At some point I think we will need to agree to disagree. You can't
> >poll
> > >people who aren't there. We don't know who would attend our meetings
> >if
> > >we took them overseas, and your current polls won't tell you. Other
> > >IEEE organization don't seem to have problems with people affording
> > >their venues, so I don't believe we will either.
> > >
> > >Bottom line for me - Sure let's try hosting for year. But if it
> >doesn't
> > >pan out in a reasonable amount of time, we pay the extra cost and go
> > >abroad anyway....
> > >
> > >Mat
> > >
> > >Matthew Sherman, Ph.D.
> > >Engineering Fellow
> > >BAE Systems - Network Systems (NS)
> > >Office: +1 973.633.6344
> > >Cell: +1 973.229.9520
> > >email: matthew.sherman@baesystems.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Rigsbee, Everett O [mailto:everett.o.rigsbee@boeing.com]
> > >Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 12:56 PM
> > >To: Sherman, Matthew J. (US SSA)
> > >Cc: stds-802-sec@listserv.ieee.org; dawns@facetoface-events.com
> > >Subject: RE: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> > >
> > >
> > >Matt, I'm sorry but I guess I don't understand why you think
> >excluding
> > >people on an economic basis is any more fair or desirable than
> >excluding
> > >people on the basis of travel time difference, which management
>rarely
> > >considers in approving travel. We've had numerous comments from our
> >nNA
> > >domiciled attendees that indicate they find NA attendance easier to
>get
> > >approval for IEEE-802 Sessions because they are inexpensive relative
>to
> > >nNA venues. Most groups do nNA venues for interims which are much
>more
> > >affordable because of size and attendance is optional for those with
> > >severe budget constraints. Every time we have surveyed our attendees
> > >they have said nNA venues are a good idea as long as they are
> > >affordable. Having hosts seems to be the secret to getting to
> > >affordable, so that's what we are trying to do. And we have not been
> > >trying to do that in a consistent and organized way before. We have
> > >discussed it but there has never been an organized or sanctioned
>effort
> > >to recruit some real hosts. So I say we give it a shot a see what we
> > >get. If we don't get there that way we can always go back to the
> > >drawing board for other options but right now this looks like our
>best
> > >shot. So let's give it a real try with EVERY Working Group making a
> > >sincere pitch to their members to find potential hosts. If we get
>some
> > >real competition going we just might come up with some really great
> > >deals.
> > >
> > >:-) So let's work together to make this a winning plan and we can
>all
> > >be happy with the results !!!
> > >
> > >
> > >Thanx, Buzz
> > >Dr. Everett O. (Buzz) Rigsbee
> > >Boeing IT
> > >PO Box 3707, M/S: 7M-FM
> > >Seattle, WA 98124-2207
> > >Ph: (425) 373-8960 Fx: (425) 865-7960
> > >Cell: (425) 417-1022
> > >everett.o.rigsbee@boeing.com
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Sherman, Matthew J. (US SSA)
> > >[mailto:matthew.sherman@baesystems.com]
> > >Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 3:57 AM
> > >To: Rigsbee, Everett O
> > >Cc: stds-802-sec@listserv.ieee.org; dawns@facetoface-events.com
> > >Subject: RE: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> > >
> > >Buzz,
> > >
> > >First off, I've already stated I support Roger's plan. However that
>is
> > >not the point in its entirety.
> > >
> > >You ask would I support $1500-2500 per person with everyone getting
> > >their own hotel space because other IEEE organizations do it? The
> > >answer is unequivocally yes! That is exactly my point.
> > >
> > >My view is that we have a duty to take our sessions outside of North
> > >America and not stay in NA just because it is cheap. The fact that
> > >other IEEE organizations can attract thousands of participants abroad
> >is
> > >an existence proof that it can be done and be viable. Do we want to
>do
> > >this every meeting - No way. But once a year?
> > >
> > >Do I want hosted meetings? Yes I would prefer that. But this is not
> > >the first time that idea has been suggested and we don't seem to be
> > >doing that well at finding hosts. So my suggestion is this - Yes
>let's
> > >try Roger's approach and see who signs up. But if no one signs up in
> > >some reasonable period of time (1 year, 1.5 years, you tell me) then
> > >lets just bite the bullet and plan that once a year we will have a
>very
> > >expensive meeting for the sake of getting our session to other areas
>of
> > >the world.
> > >
> > >At least that's my view.
> > >
> > >Mat
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Matthew Sherman, Ph.D.
> > >Engineering Fellow
> > >BAE Systems - Network Systems (NS)
> > >Office: +1 973.633.6344
> > >Cell: +1 973.229.9520
> > >email: matthew.sherman@baesystems.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Rigsbee, Everett O [mailto:everett.o.rigsbee@boeing.com]
> > >Sent: Monday, December 03, 2007 8:50 PM
> > >To: Sherman, Matthew J. (US SSA)
> > >Cc: stds-802-sec@listserv.ieee.org; dawns@facetoface-events.com
> > >Subject: RE: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> > >
> > >
> > >Hey Matt, I work with those IEEE folks all the time and we share
>lots
> > >of info on better-than-average venues. When I showed them our specs
> >and
> > >told them what we were looking for, their response was basically
>"Rotsa
> > >Ruck, Joe !!!" They do lots of International Conferences that need a
> > >few big rooms, an exhibit hall, little or no break-outs, and last for
> > >2-3 days. Their typical attendee fees for these are
>$1500-$2500/person
> > >and that does not include hotels or transportation. And that's on
>top
> > >of all the revenue they get from their exhibitors, and with no hosted
> > >F&B. Does that sound like what you think we want to do for our
> > >attendees ??? You should stick to your IETF model; that's at least
> > >close and the only major differences are they totally rely on hosting
> > >organizations for their nNA venues and they need a lot less
>break-outs
> > >than we do. That's what we've learned in our 3 years of looking hard
> > >for various nNA options.
> > >
> > >I am in touch with my counterpart at IETF (Ray Pelletier) and have
>been
> > >for the last 3 years. We have shared a lot of experiences and we are
> > >currently working on a plan to find a nNA venue where we could do
> > >back-to-back IETF and IEEE-802 meeting weeks, so that folks that want
> >to
> > >could do both meetings with just one trip, and we could share costs
>of
> > >services over the two-week spread so we get to split one set-up &
> > >tear-down fee, and minimum Internet bandwidth charges are usually
> > >monthly fees so we get to split that too (if it is not hosted as it
> > >usually is for IETF). That's just one more plan under consideration.
> > >
> > >Also I should like to remind you that Paul Nikolich had already
> > >appointed Bob Heile to be our nNA venue specialist, charged with
> >finding
> > >us some affordable nNA venues because I didn't have enough time and
> > >travel budget to do the job properly. I've only stepped back in
>lately
> > >because nothing was happening after the groups totally vetoed Bob's
> >plan
> > >to go to Sydney, Australia for March 2009 because we have "been there
> > >and done that".
> > >
> > >Also if you'll remember we had an arrangement with Mary Russell of
> > >Hamilton Group Meeting Planners (HGMP) to find us some nNA venues for
> > >our January 2007 802-hosted Interim. After a year and a half we came
> > >out with exactly 1 venue (the London Metropole, which we already knew
> > >about) and the cost for that service was $75K plus the $25K we paid
>in
> > >penalties, so another $100K down the pooper for a site that nobody
> > >liked. And Mary Russell has great credentials for nNA venues, but as
> > >she says we are either too big or too poor to be able to do this on
>our
> > >own. We need some hosting organizations to get better (more
> >affordable)
> > >deals.
> > >
> > >So with Roger's proposal I think we are finally on the right track,
>but
> > >you have to at least give it a chance to work. If I have to spend
>all
> > >my bandwidth on refuting all these personal attacks we really are
>never
> > >going to get there. So how about providing some positive support for
> > >Roger's Plan and let's knock off all of this uninformed
>second-guessing
> > >??? It's really not helping; it's just another diversion from what
> >we
> > >really need to be doing: finding some viable hosts with viable and
> > >affordable venues. That's where we need the help !!! Are you up for
> >it
> > >??? I hope so !!! :-)
> > >
> > >
> > >Thanx, Buzz
> > >Dr. Everett O. (Buzz) Rigsbee
> > >Boeing IT
> > >PO Box 3707, M/S: 7M-FM
> > >Seattle, WA 98124-2207
> > >Ph: (425) 373-8960 Fx: (425) 865-7960
> > >Cell: (425) 417-1022
> > >everett.o.rigsbee@boeing.com
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Sherman, Matthew J. (US SSA)
> > >[mailto:matthew.sherman@BAESYSTEMS.COM]
> > >Sent: Monday, December 03, 2007 4:10 PM
> > >To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
> > >Subject: Re: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> > >
> > >Another approach to getting assistance for Buzz is to go to IEEE.
> > >
> > >I think they have staff that specializes in setting up meeting
>venues.
> > >I'm not sure how cost effective that is but it is another
>possibility.
> > >
> > >Mat
> > >
> > >Matthew Sherman, Ph.D.
> > >Engineering Fellow
> > >BAE Systems - Network Systems (NS)
> > >Office: +1 973.633.6344
> > >Cell: +1 973.229.9520
> > >email: matthew.sherman@baesystems.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: ***** IEEE 802 Executive Committee List *****
> > >[mailto:STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG] On Behalf Of J Lemon
> > >Sent: Monday, December 03, 2007 6:08 PM
> > >To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
> > >Subject: [802SEC] Why Buzz
> > >
> > >I don't understand why Buzz has been having to do the work on meeting
> > >logistics. Isn't this part of what we pay FTF to do? If it is, let's
> >let
> > >them do their job. Or, if it isn't, why isn't it? Wouldn't it make
> >sense
> > >to pay to have this done for us by professionals instead of either
> > >dumping the load on Buzz or having all of us amateurs try to quickly
> > >learn the business of huge meeting booking?
> > >
> > >If making large nNA meeting arrangements is beyond the expertise of
> >FTF,
> > >maybe we could issue a separate contract for booking these, or maybe
> >FTF
> > >could subcontract this out to arrangers in Europe and Asia? I'd
>rather
> > >the latter, as I'd prefer to have a consistent point of contact for
>us.
> > >And I'd hate to lose all the expertise that FTF has about what we
>need
> > >and desire.
> > >
> > >jl
> > >
> > >On 12/3/2007 6:04 AM, Tony Jeffree wrote:
> > > >
> > > > I repeat, I would like for *us all* to truly focus on the problem.
> > > > Buzz is a volunteer, just like the rest of us; this isn't his only
> > > > job. And there is a limit to what one person can do in a situation
> > > > where we are attempting to do something that is new for the
> > > > organisation and may not necessarily conform to the way business
>is
> > > > routinely done in NA. He doesn't need us making more rods for his
> > > > back; what he needs is practical help and support. Lets start
>doing
> > >that.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > > Tony
> > >
> > >----------
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> > >This list is maintained by Listserv.
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